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  • Is World Economy going to the Stable Growth Period after the “2nd Great Moderation”? (6 Temmuz 2014)

     "Great Moderation," phrase fi rst time was used by Professor James Stock from Harvard University and Professor Mark Watson from Princeton University in their “Are Business Cycles Changed and Why?” named article, corresponding the 15-year period before the crisis. Later this phrase was used by important economy managers.

     The authors of the article had reached the powerful results that were showing the fl uctuations in economic activity in the U.S. have fallen and they have noted in the article that 10 to 25 % of this decline was due to sharp decline in the infl ation rate. The article had predicted successfully that a 15-year period would be an interim period prior to the economic turbulence before the crisis.

     For the G7 economies, the standard deviation in the average growth rate for the last four years were 3 % in 2010 and during the period 1987-2007 0.8 % levels and this year is expected to come down to 0.4 %. In this respect, it is predicted that in 2014 stocks will be more advantageous than bonds, and consumer spending will revival. If growth rates will rise as expected, interest rates will also increase, demand for bonds will decline which was already at very high level and in parallel stocks demand will increase as expected.

     Nowadays of economic policies is said to be having more tools to stabilize growth and infl ation. The comments made was mentioning that; especially now more effective policies against small shocks can be produced, but the real issue was the reduction of the negative impact on the economy of the bigger shocks. Also, due to the increased share of services sector of the economy had reduced sensitivity to demand, supply chain and inventory management and improving effi ciency had reduced variability in the manufacturing industry.

     Goldman Sachs thinks that regulating the debt of banks and consumers more tightly was effective for surging in economic growth. For example, according to data from the European Central Bank, the Euro zone lending to companies and households decreased by 2.2 % in March 2014 comparing to the same month of the previous year.

     On the other hand, growth is still below the required amenities. The followings were noted in a review; “It was too early to say that steady growth trend was started, the infl ation rate in many countries was still below the target, or even there was a risk of defl ation, most economies still did not catch the levels of 2007, U.S. employment losses more or less could be closed in March 2014. In this review also it was noted that even though recently the variability in the growth rates were declined, recent, but low levels of growth rates were experienced. G-7 economies were growing 2.6 % in the 1990s, 2.2 % in 2000s, 1.9 % grew since 2009. In this regard, pessimistic looking about the steady growth of continues are on-going”.

    In addition, more optimism of investors caught up in the recovery period will tend for them to take excessive risks but the economy can change the direction again. As it is known, if the risk is low then investors tend to ignore the risk. In April 2014 10.9 % rise in real estate prices in the UK, and also directing the demand to the very risky technology stocks in the United States (“junk”) bonds, is increasing concerns in this direction. In a comment made by JPMorgan Chase, it was indicated that “2nd Great Moderation” may not also be for the long-term; towards the end of 2014 the impact of the rise in infl ation could overtake the growth of earnings, and might increase the volatility again.

     In a comment made by an optimistic viewpoint; the idea of the process of gradual improvement would provide sustained increases in employment and in investment was stated. When the infl ation was low, expansionary monetary policies could be implemented and the low risk of overheating in the economy was being expressed. 

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